4G Now

Mobile WiMAX Subscriber Numbers Surpass Fixed for the First Time

4.73 million active BWA/WiMAX subscribers were reached by the end of Q3 2009, and for the first time, the number of mobile WiMAX (802.16e-2005) subscribers surpassed the number of fixed WiMAX (802.16-2004) subscribers worldwide, according to the 10th issue of the 4GCounts Quarterly Report from Maravedis.

WiMAX embedded devices are slowly growing their share of the installed base. “77% of CPEs installed in Q3 2009 were indoor CPEs with over 3.6 million units, followed by USB dongles (595,000 units or 13%) and, PCMCIA cards (244,000 units or 5%),” said Cintia Garza, co-author of the report and 4GCounts team leader.

Mobile WiMAX Market Continued to Ramp in Late 2008

According to a recently published report by Dell’Oro Group, the trusted source for market information about the networking and telecommunications industries, the worldwide mobile WiMAX infrastructure revenues nearly quadrupled in the third quarter of 2008 (the most recent quarter with available market information) over the third quarter of 2007.

“With LTE still a couple of years away, WiMAX has, in fact, become the first next generation technology with commercial service,” commented Scott Siegler, Senior Analyst of Mobile Infrastructure research at Dell’Oro Group. “Mobile WiMAX revenues were very strong in the third quarter of last year, and we anticipate revenue for the fourth quarter to set another record. However, as we look into 2009, we expect the WiMAX market to be hit rather hard by the economic downturn. Building out brand new networks from scratch requires tens, if not hundreds, of millions of dollars of capital. Compounding the tightening in the credit markets, the increasing cost of capital and the decrease in demand for broadband data as consumer spending weakens, we anticipate many network buildouts will be put on hold or delayed into 2010. With initial LTE rollouts coming in the 2010 to 2011 timeframe, these delays will shorten the time to market advantage WiMAX currently has over LTE,” Siegler continued.

Released by Dell’Oro Group

$8.6 Billion LTE Base Station Forecast Shows There is Still Enthusiasm for Deployment

More than eighteen operators globally have announced LTE deployment plans, and the tough economy does not seem to have dampened their enthusiasm. In fact, Verizon has announced acceleration of its LTE deployment timetable, bringing the launch forward from 2010 to 2009. Many of the others are looking at a 2011-2012 timeframe, by which time, they hope, much of the current pain will have passed.

According to ABI Research senior analyst Nadine Manjaro, “ABI Research believes that NTT will also deploy LTE in Japan in 2009. We forecast that by 2013 operators will spend over $8.6 billion on LTE base station infrastructure alone. For operators that have already deployed 3G networks, LTE will be a key CAPEX driver over the next five years.”

LTE application development will also drive investment as operators work to determine which services to deploy on this high speed, low latency network.

Sprint and Verizon have both announced that they will provide third-party access to their GPS data. ”The resulting new applications will tie mobility and presence aspects together to create more compelling services than in the past,” says Manjaro. “This is significant because it represents the beginning of a new generation of application development which will leverage the vast amounts of data in operators’ networks.”

Application developers already talking to these carriers include WaveMarket, Inc. and uLocate Communications, Inc.

Released by ABI Research

Mobile WiMAX Penetrates 49 Nations in the World with Samsung, ZTE at the Forefront

As of December 2008, 85 operators in 49 nations worldwide have chosen Mobile WiMAX for commercial or test service.

According to Samsung Electronics, there are over 300 fixedline WiMAX service providers in about 100 nations and they are considering the switch to Mobile WiMAX, which signals further expansion of Mobile WiMAX.

Samsung is preparing for commercial or test service of Mobile WiMAX with 23 operators in 19 nations and talks are going on with over 20 operators in a dozen nations about adoption of Mobile WiMAX. The company has already provided equipments for countries in all regions in the world: the US in North America; Japan and Taiwan in Asia; Russia and Lithuania in Europe; Saudi Arabia and Kuwait in the Middle East; Brazil and Venezuela in Latin America. In particular, Omnivision in Venezuela started commercial service in 2007, and Sprint Nextel in the US, Skartel in Russia and Mobily in Saudi Arabia in September 2008, while there are 6 other nations planning to launch commercial Mobile WiMAX service next year.

ZTE, a Chinese Mobile WiMAX equipment provider, has penetrated even more nations than Samsung. According to the Chinese company, over 30 operators in the Asia-Pacific region, Middle-East/ Africa, and Europe has launched Mobile WiMAX service on a test- or commercial basis using ZTE's equipment and over 120 operators in the world are partnering ZTE for Mobile WiMAX business. ZTE is the only Chinese company among the 15 board members of the WiMAX Forum and has WiMAX R&D Institutions throughout the world.

Quoting ABI Research's report, Samsung forecasts the world WiMAX market volume will surge from $3.5 billion in 2008 to $59.6 billion by 2012, with the number of subscribers growing from 12 million to 280 million during the same period. 

Multi-Mode WiMAX/LTE Chips to Hit Markets in 2009

2009 will see the introduction of a new class of wireless communications chip that features dual-mode support for both WiMAX and LTE, according to ABI Research. The thrust of demand for such chips comes from those wireless device makers seeking to reduce the number of their SKUs; they will welcome the economies of scale that come from creating devices that support both 4G standards.

“Some mobile operators are showing interest in dual-mode chipsets,” says ABI Research principal analyst Philip Solis, “and they are backing it with cash. Vodafone, for example, has a foot in both WiMAX and LTE camps. They will use LTE in industrialized regions, and WiMAX in developing nations. In Japan, KDDI may deploy LTE on its own, but as an investor (along with Intel and others) in WiMAX operator UQ Communications, KDDI has an interest in both standards.”

These chips are destined for any and all mobile devices, although given that most of the early usage of both LTE and WiMAX will be for data transmission, USB modems, laptops, netbooks, and MIDs are likely to be the first products to include the dual-mode chips.

“Because WiMAX networks will be deployed sooner than LTE, for competitive reasons these dual-mode chips are generally being created by WiMAX chip vendors, particularly the smaller, more agile ones,” Solis adds.

Released by ABI Research

Mobile WiMAX in a Continuous Slump

Mobile WiMax or WiBro service providers, KT and SK Telecom, suffer worsening profitability in the business.
 
KT's profit in the third quarter plummeted 31.1 percent to 15 billion won. The drop is mainly attributable to dwindled subscription which fell from 200,000 in June to 180,000 in July and 170,000 in August. Accumulated profit for the year was only 56.6 billion won. 
 
For SK Telecom, profit is almost non-existent. Until the second quarter, sales were less than 100 million won. If things go out this way, combined sales of KT and SK Telecom in this year are expected to be around 80 billion won. In 2007, KT reported 36.5 billion won in sales while SK Telecom reported 100 million won.
 
KT said that the situation is getting better as it increased service coverage to 19 cities and serviceable devices. Big improvement, however, doesn't seem to be quite possible.
 
With respect to WiBro voice service, KT said that it developed related technologies but hadn't decided whether to apply it or not. KT said that the service can bring about more benefit to customers but there are things to consider, which can be interpreted as that the service might erode the sales of KTF, KT's mobile operating affiliate, despite the government policy to allow the service.

KT Forecasts another Sluggish Year for Mobile WiMAX

The Korean Mobile WiMAX market is likely to remain sluggish next year, if nothing unexpected happens.

According to an unofficial prediction by KT, the South Korean WiBro service provider, if WiBro service keeps growing at the present rate, the number of subscribers will grow to about 370,000, almost double the present level, by the end of 2009.

KT Management Research Lab says in a recent report about the Korean telecom market outlook for next year that WiBro market volume will depend on the government decision on voice call, operators' investment for coverage expansion and SK Telecom's market involvement, and if WiBro recovers 200,000 subscribers this year, it will be able to reach 370,000 next year.

The nation's WiBro subscribers passed 0.2 million in the former half of this year, but the introduction of contractual obligation in June caused massive cancellations. Presently, there are only 170,000 WiBro users.

Meanwhile, the report forecasts after a short period of transfer by 2010, internet phone will substitute for fixedline telephony in the long run.

About mobile communications, the institute expects continuous market growth. Next years' mobile phone market will generate 21.5 trillion won in revenue, up by 0.7 trillion won from originally projected 20.8 trillion won, according to KT. Fierce competition among operators will bring down service prices, but rising 3G subscribers and robust sales of wireless data service will serve as main revenue boosters.

In 2009, IPTV subscribers will be 3.5 million, up by 1.3 million from the previous year's 2.2 million, but whether IPTV service providers can reach agreement with terrestrial broadcasters about reasonable prices for the retransmission of terrestrial programs will decide the revenue and the profits of IPTV business, according to KT.